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Date: 2016-08-12

Risks and Rewards Link a Trio of Markets in Southeast Asia

American Commerce Department Secretary Penny Pritzker recently made her fourth official trip to Asia, winging there aboard her personal jet.  She won't be racking up frequent flyer miles, but she will be representing the Obama Administration's “rebalance” towards Asia while conveying subtler images of the role of women, entrepreneurship, and power derived from wealth.  Pritzker's family owns Hyatt Hotels, she has started several companies, and her personal fortune qualifies her for membership in the elite group of billionaires.

She visited three countries--Vietnam, the Philippines, and Burma:  All of them growing faster than the world average and considerably faster than other developed economies. Vietnam does not have much liquidity but receives generous aid from international development banks.  As a result huge infrastructure projects are slated, including subways in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, and a new national highway system the lack of which had caused a drag on north south integration.

Many of the projects amount to tied aid, which is a way of saying that if “I'm Japan or China and I give or loan you money on favorable terms, I expect that my companies will get most of the business.” The Asia development bank is a pass-through for untied aid to all the countries on this visit, so check its website for contracting and subcontracting opportunities.

There is less fear of Chinese competition due to bad blood over China's decision to park an offshore oil rig in what Vietnam claims is its territorial waters.  At the same time, other real estate rows have sent a chill throughout Southeast Asia, which is bound to affect investment decisions of businesspeople within and outside the region.  China retains considerable investments in Vietnam, as its businesses take advantage of labor costs that are lower than China’s.  The mix of business and national security interests adds additional layers of complexity and combustion.

The Philippines is a good developing market prospect for English speakers as that language is spoken widely.  Its economy is the 4th fastest growing in Asia after China, Burma and Laos. Reconstruction activity in the aftermath of a massive typhoon has pushed growth over 7.2 percent in 2013 and the same is forecast this year.  The Aquino government has made considerable progress towards sustaining growth through its macro economic policies and efforts to rein in corruption.  And the Philippines has improved its ease of doing business scores, according to the IMF.

Military sales are likely to grow as countries arm in the face of an assertive China. Still it's hard though not impossible to consider the possibility of a real shooting war given the tightly bound nature of regional supply chains anchored by two of the antagonists, China and Japan.  The official position of the U.S. is that disputes should be settled peacefully using the appropriate global institutions.  Meanwhile, U.S. military assets have been beefed up in the Philippines, an unambiguous signal that alliances will be defended.

An Asian Rip Van Winkle

Prizker’s trip ended in Burma, which is had growth of over 7 percent in 2013, and the same or more is projected for this year.  Burma’s first popularly elected government seeks more U.S. trade and investment as a counterweight to China, which was chief ally and benefactor during more than 50 years of isolation.   An Asian Rip Van Winkle, Burma has awakened to find that its laws are hopelessly outdated and that the entire civil and commercial code has to be created anew.  The absence of relevant laws, coupled with a stifling bureaucracy and regular power outages amidst staggering tropical heat, make getting things done an enormous challenge.

Finding good partner is key but it turns out that this isn’t easy either.  Former or current high-level military officers own many businesses.  In the tourist industry, that may or may not guarantee a perfectly made hotel bed.  And while you won't face penalties for staying on a general’s property even if his name appears on a sanctioned persons list compiled by the U.S. or other western governments, you will be in trouble if you try to do direct business with him or his cronies.

Now that the Secretary’s jet has headed for home, the American Chambers of Commerce members can breath a collective sigh of exhilaration and relief.  Time to get back to work, and there’s plenty of it.


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