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Date: 2016-08-12

Online Commerce Forecast: Opportunities Moving in Overnight, with a 95 Percent Chance of Heavy Disruption

Assuming economic forecasts pan out and nothing terrible and unforeseen happens, the number of consumers in the world will increase to 1.8 billion by 2025.  Not all of them will be able to afford what you produce.  But an eye-watering number will.

Spending on goods and services will increase to $30 trillion, almost triple the current rate.  By 2018 global trade will reach $307 billion just among the U.S., the UK, Germany, Brazil, Australia and China.

There will be 130 million cross border shoppers and 72 million will be making ecommerce purchases.  Even tax happy Brazil is getting into the act with cross border online purchases of $8.4 billion by 2018.  No wonder the online giant Amazon is willing to deficit spend Amazonian sums of money on fulfillment centers near key consumer hubs around the world.  Others will surely follow as customers demand faster delivery times and competitive pricing.  Delivery by drone is still off in the future somewhere, but no longer the stuff of science fiction. In any case, soon you will have the option of stashing inventory in Hamburg, Helsinki or Harbin.

Another interesting trend is that more consumers are using smart phones to make purchases from foreign vendors, and they can pay for the goods in their own currency, in some instances by bitcoin if they prefer.

Here's what people are buying online from cross border sources:

Clothing, shoes, accessories             $12 billion

Health and beauty                                  $7.6 billion

Personal electronics                             $6 billion

Jewelry/watches.                                    $ 5.4 billion

Home electronics                                   $5.4 billion

Sellers in the ecommerce space (aficionados prefer the term online commerce), need to be aware of buying orgies that take place on national occasions—all the better for creating promotions and even more excitement.  China has invented "Singles Day,” which dramatically lifts online purchases for a single frenzied 24- hour period.  In 2013, $8.2 billion changed hands.  The total should exceed $10 billion this year.

An easier market to crack for Americans and other nationalities is the UK on Boxing Day, the day after Christmas.  Online sales topped $3.7 billion in 2013, with shoppers spending a whopping 17 million hours trolling for deals online.  No wonder worker productivity and foot traffic on the high street are falling.

The next big trend is likely to be consumer-to-consumer or C2C.  It's already trending on social media sites.  In Thailand younger consumers are attracted to cute little animal stamps created by retailers.  A friend might send them a link to your product via their Facebook page. Soon the number of likes swell and orders follow.  It's not just for young adults; Thai users include folks up to the fossilized age of 60 and beyond, easily encompassing company buyers and decision makers who use the information about new products to make purchases.

Retailers won't be left out in the rain.  Twitter and Facebook are both testing new services that will allow users to buy products they see mentioned in Tweets, feeds and ads.  You'll be able to click, type in credit card info, and the details will be sent to merchants who take care of fulfillment.

Technology and new business models are converging rapidly and some in combination will have disruptive effects on entire sectors.

Quick!  Devote more time getting WPG to work more for you.  And send the homepage link to someone you care about. It's never too late to get smarter about online commerce (until it is).


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